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Demography of India – Visible Dividend or Invisible Disaster !!!

Kindly note that essay is a very dynamic paper and nobody in India gives a topic wise strategy for essay. Although the style of representation and content can vary from individual to individual, what we are trying to do here is give you some critical aspect, some examples or quotes and reference material which can act as a guide to create a better framework and shape your essay in order to take it to the next-level. Every individual have their strength and way of expression and by no means we want to suppress your creative writing abilities or hamper your imagination, hence use this strategy as a tool to create a better framework. The idea is to expand your horizon of thinking. If you have something more to add do let us know in the comment section.

This is one of the most debated topics across policy circles and although we are buoyant by the dividend part, there looms a disaster too, as discussed by the economic survey in the concept of demographic window.

The framework should be-

  1. In the introduction discuss what is demographic dividend- the concept and Indian scenario – 65% below 35 age.
  2. Then what is demographic transition as discussed by the demographers at UN’s population control organisation. Discuss India’s case as well.
  3. Delve in to why it can be demographic disaster  (discuss demographic window concept as discussed by economic survey here)
    1. Bad social indicators – IMR, Poverty, Inequality etc – Give data and report name here
    2. Low literacy rate- data and report name (Pratham NGO’s ASER report, Census) and discuss how it is a hindrance to reaping dividend.
    3. Lack of skillset/employability – Monster report or any other report on skillset in India, Show skill-employment gap in India and Indian education system and how most of our graduates are not job-ready.
    4. Lack of secondary/manufacturing sector to absorb blue-collar workers
    5. Jobless growth of GDP
    6. Social fault lines- reservation demands and issues,communal clashes, polarization of society on the lines of caste, religion etc, regionalism and water wars- link it with water stress and how it can spell doom for Indian agro-sector (more 60% employed here and its importance)
    7. Increasing Inequality- rich getting richer and poor getting poorer-lack of equitable distribution of income.
    8. Climatic episodes and threat to economy and demography- Agro-sector, Urban flood, drought, global warming, flood etc
    9. Low participation rate of women in formal economy
    10. Children and child labour issues
    11. Old age and the issues associated with it.
    12. Tribal issues- low literacy, lack of access to basic needs, remote location etc.
    13. Also show how in our discourse of demography is highly titled towards youth only and in the process we have forgotten to include the most important sections-women, child, older population, tribals etc and this discourse is not right as they are part of our demography as well. We can not have demographic dividend if huge section of our demography is not part of our productive economy.
    14. Discuss global factors-
      1. Reverse migration from Gulf
      2. Rise of protectionism, terrorism etc
      3. Trend of de-globalization
      4. Fourth IR and threat to jobs

After showing the disaster, you have to show how it can be a dividend:-

 

  1. Good and robust democracy and voice to the people
  2. Strong civil society and proactive govt.
  3. Good education sector
  4. Resilience of Indian economy
  5. Rising income across all sections of society
  6. Huge push for skilling/ mass skilling programs- Govt initiatives
  7. Rising wage in China and its losing competitiveness to India
  8. Strengthening health sector
  9. Lack of corruption, push for digitization of economy etc
  10. Digitization of rural economy-Give example of Akdora village in Gujrat and e-commerce of rural products
  11. Better foreign policy 
  12. Reaping the power of  “forgotten diaspora”
  13. Huge investment in social and human capital
  14. Efforts to bridge the social fault lines
  15. Provisioning of social safety nets – PM Fasal Bima Yojana and other insurance schemes
  16. Ageing globe and Young India and how India can be HR power house of the world.
  17. Boost to manufacturing sector through Make in India etc.
  18. Fourth IR and India’s competitiveness in this sector – IT sector, as 4th IR is built upon 3rd IR and India has edge in this arena.
  19. Although there is rising protectionism, still countries want the people to work for them so there is bound to be easier migration policies else many developed countries will collapse due to lack of vibrant workforce and rising pensioners.

In short, first paint the dark picture of disaster and then show the dividend so that towards the end of your essay the essay gets positive spin. Also include any other factors that you deem fit for this essay.

Conclude with a positive note.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July 8, 2017

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